After decades of relative stagnation, the world of transportation is on the cusp of multiple revolutions. The biggest three:

Electrification: a shift from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs)

Automation: a shift from human-piloted vehicles to automated vehicles (AVs) that drive themselves

Ride-sharing: a shift from privately owned, often single-occupant vehicles to fleets of shared cars, vans, and small and large buses

There is talk of how these trends will be realized. How they will influence each other and interact with the existing infrastructure? From the point of view of urbanists, transport revolutions can have two opposite outcomes: a paradise in which there are fewer cars and parking, more space for pedestrians and bicycles, or hell in which there are even more cars, distances are even longer, and cities continue to spread across vast territories . The way events will develop does not depend on technology. It depends on us - our willingness to discuss, argue and plan the future we dream of. Do not rely on the fact that the market itself will put everything in its place.

In late April, the University of California Davis and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy released a report, “Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation” that attempted to put some numbers on how these revolutions will play out.

The first scenario assumes that the status quo is maintained. Private cars with internal combustion engines continue to dominate the world, and as people in developing countries get richer, the number of such machines is growing.

The second scenario involves two revolutions - electrification and automation. If in 2016 750,000 electric cars were sold, then by 2020 this figure should be 5 million. Full automation of management will become a commercial product by 2020 and will be distributed in 2025. The price of such cars will fall sharply and by 2040 the main share of sales will fall on autonomous electric cars. Hydrocarbon emissions to the atmosphere will decrease. However, this scenario assumes that sharing will not be widespread - the machines will remain private and will not be filled even by half. Well, since it is easier and more convenient to drive in such a car, the length of trips will grow by 10-15 percent, and the number of cars on the roads will at least remain the same.

In the third scenario, sharing of transport becomes common practice, and the authorities actively encourage multimodal travel. It creates a harmonious transport “ecosystem” in which different types of movement complement each other. The number of cars in personal use is sharply declining, cars are transported by several people and their number is decreasing on the roads.

Let's highlight a few key points. The first: electrification solves problems with harmful emissions, of cities, and transport sharing. The second scenario makes it possible to reduce the election by 2,900 metric megatons, the third reduces another 1,000 metric megatons. If by 2050 we learn to get electricity without hydrocarbon fuel, then the problem of the influence of transport on climate will be solved.

However, in order to reduce the number of cars on the streets of our cities, we must move to sharing transport. Climate scientists and urbanists in recent years have found many points of contact, and that's great. Urbanists are trying to convince climate scientists that a higher population density in our cities will contribute to reducing emissions. And indeed it is. However, if your main goal is to reduce emissions, then urbanism is not the most profitable strategy. The main thing is electrification.

Second: the most profitable scenario from the point of view of society requires the maximum support of the authorities. The researchers found that the third scenario has the largest cumulative effect: less energy, less emissions, fewer cars, more multimodal journeys and multi-functional urban spaces. And, not least, all this will cost the society much cheaper. Scientists did not take into account the benefits of reducing harmful emissions, only the cost of infrastructure, labor costs (drivers are no longer needed!), prices for maintaining the system, and so on.

Third: lack of space requires sharing of transport. This year, urbanist Jeff Speck gave a fantastic report at the Conference of US Mayors entitled "Autonomous cars: the right answer to the wrong problem." Wrong problem: how do we make cars better? True problem: how can we make our cities better? And when it comes to cities, we are faced with the problem of a shortage of space.

The truth is that a person occupying a single seat in a four-seater autonomous electric vehicle requires exactly the same amount of space as a person occupying the only seat in a four-seater car with an internal combustion engine. This is what urbanist Jared Walker says about this: “Lack of space is a defining moment for cities. This is what distinguishes them from the suburbs and the countryside. Therefore, the efficiency of transport use of space will always be an extremely important issue. ”

The authors of the report emphasize that speaking of sharing, they mean not only services like Uber and Lyft. Individual trips from point A to B do not solve the problem. In theory, autonomous electric cars can reduce the space deficit through more efficient driving, but this does not help to compensate for the increase in the number of cars themselves. The only solution to the shortage of space is to have several different people share one car, as is the case with the metro or buses. If we want autonomous electric cars to make cities better, they should not replace themselves, but strengthen efficient public transport.

This is how the authors of the report imagine the ideal future: buses and rail vehicles form the basis of the transport system, and autonomous electric cars for 12-18 people are used as a supplement. A smaller number of cars that are actively used and spend little time in the parking, will release kilometers of roads and parking lots, which can be turned into sidewalks, bicycle lanes and public spaces. Freedom from private car ownership will save trillions of dollars a year.

Source: vox.com